CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID Sun 28 Aug 06:00 - Mon 29 Aug 06:00 2005 (UTC)
ISSUED: 27 Aug 19:09 (UTC)
FORECASTER: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

Upper low anchored over the Norwegian Sea ... is exhibiting several vort maxima at its periphery ... which will cross N-central and NE Europe during the period ... with one of them closing off into an upper cut-off low over the WRN Mediterranean early in the period. Strong vort max ... associated with another upper low downstream from the Norwegian-Sea system ... is progged to reach the British Isles late in the period. Extensive SFC low complex is covering N and NE Europe ... as well as the NRN Atlantic. Strong cyclogenesis is expected ahead of the British vort max.

DISCUSSION

...NE Europe...
It seems that weak instability will be present ahead of DCVA-regime associated with peripheral vort max across E-central Europe. Though lightning may be rather isolated due to anticipated shallow nature of the convection ... it may be produce strong outlflow winds given moderately strong shear. Especially over the Baltic States and SRN Finland ... LLS should be sufficient for a few shallow mesocyclones late in the day. However ... diurnal cooling may limit severe convective threat.

...WRN Mediterranean...
Underneath the Mediterranean upper low ... scattered showers and TSTMS should develop ... as well as S of it where DCVA should be present. Saturday's 12Z ascents suggest that only quite shallow LL moisture is present ... with much CINH and minimal CAPE. DLS of about 15 m/s should be in place ... with rather little LLS. This suggests that organized severe threat is rather low ... though multicellular structures may develop ... capable of producing some hail and strong wind gusts.

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